By LOIS KINDLE
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could potentially produce some of the most intense storms ever. That’s due to a number of factors, said Jennifer Hubbard, senior forecaster for the National Weather Service Tampa Bay office in Ruskin.
She’s referencing higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean that cause reduced Atlantic trade winds and lessen wind shear, all of which favor the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is projecting a very busy 2024 hurricane season this year, the highest seasonal forecast it has ever announced in May. The main factors this year are hot sea temperatures and La Nina conditions that cause less wind shear to break up storms.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Eight to 13 of those are projected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and four to seven of them are expected to become major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher).
“The main driving factors this year are hot water temperatures, which act as fuel, and La Nina conditions that break up wind shear,” Hubbard said. “This is the highest seasonal forecast NOAA has ever projected in May.”
NOAA is predicting an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
“Now is the time to start preparing,” Hubbard continued, adding forecasters can’t predict where hurricanes will land at this point, but the entire Florida coastline, including the South Shore area, is extremely vulnerable to storm surge.
In late September 2022, Hurricane Ian devastated Ft. Myers Beach and Sanibel, Pine and Captiva islands. Hubbard saw first-hand what a 13.8-foot storm surge driven by 162-mph winds can do.
Jennifer Hubbard, senior forecaster for the National Weather Service Tampa Bay office in Ruskin, works with NOAA’s storm surge crew at Ft. Myers Beach after it was devastated by Hurricane Ian’s 162 mph winds and 13.8-foot storm surge.
“It was unlike anything I had ever witnessed in my 24 years with NOAA,” she said. “The level of destruction was incomprehensible.
“If you live near the water and the county orders you to evacuate, heed it and get out,” she said. “We are no different than Ft. Myers.”
Even last year, with Idalia passing 100 miles off the Gulf coast, Tampa Bay had a storm surge of four feet.
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30.
Recommended hurricane supplies
• A gallon of water per person per day for seven days, canned goods, protein bars, peanut butter, bagged popcorn, etc.
• Three to seven days of nonperishable foods
• A seven-day supply of food, medications and extra water for pets
• NOAA weather radio with tone alert
• Battery-powered radio, extra batteries
• Battery-powered radio and flashlight, extra batteries
• Cell phone and charger, back-up battery
• Two-week supply of medications, including pain relievers
• Updated list of family meds/dosages; doctor and pharmacy phone numbers
• Manual can opener, disposable dishes and utensils
• Personal hygiene items
• Prescription eyeglasses, saline solution
• First-aid kit
NOAA PHOTOS
This enhanced NOAA satellite photo shows Hurricane Idalia approaching the Big Bend area of Florida, where it made landfall near Keaton Beach, causing seven to 12 feet of storm surge in Levy, Dixie and Taylor counties. As it passed Tampa Bay, the hurricane was 100-miles offshore, yet it still caused a storm surge of four feet along coastal South Shore.
• Important documents: driver’s license, insurance policies, insurance agent’s name/phone number, etc.
• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
• Matches in a waterproof container
• Whistle (to signal for help)
• Cash and coins
• Full tank of gas
• Dust mask (to help filter contaminated air)
• Plastic sheeting and duct tape (to shelter in place)
• Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
NOTE: If you need to evacuate to a shelter, you might want to include bed linens or blankets, a change of clothes, toiletries/hygiene items and personal medications; baby supplies; games, books and puzzles for children; face coverings; hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes.
Many public shelters and hotels don’t allow pets, so it’s important to know a safe place to take yours in advance of the storm.
The 2024 Hillsborough County hurricane evacuation zone map and shelter locations can be seen at https://tinyurl.com/yrsy78zw.
Remember, run from the water and hide from the wind.