The Changing Face of South Hillsborough
Welcome to SouthShore (Part 1 of 3)
By Mitch Traphagen
mitch@observernews.net
RUSKIN -
Home Depot is coming! Target is coming! Tens of thousands of people are moving
into south county!
That’s the hype, anyway.
The reality is that all may be true - someday. Not tomorrow, probably not next year but someday.
After an almost inconceivable number of years of rumors and speculation, major development is most definitely occurring in South Hillsborough County. The face of our area is changing.
But it will not happen overnight.
As if foreshadowing an ominous future both Tampa Bay daily newspapers lump south county into their Brandon sections. It is clear that the number of articles with Ruskin, Apollo Beach and Riverview datelines has increased. The area is getting attention.
Will this area become "another Brandon?" Don’t hold your breath waiting for it.
The steady stream of hype has many south county residents convinced that "they won’t recognize this place" in just a few short years.
"People have been saying that things will be different five years from now," said Daniel Kushmer, executive director of the Ruskin Chamber of Commerce. "But then again, they’ve been saying that for 50 years."
Not even the
major newspapers are immune from it. A story about a major shopping mall on Big
Bend Road is quickly followed by another story about how there may not be a
shopping mall anytime soon, followed by another story about how there may be a
shopping mall fairly soon but it may not be quite so major.
It is almost impossible to sort out fact from rumor, reality from hype. Fortunately, some trends are emerging and there are groups of local residents working to build a framework that will prevent "another Brandon."
For the most part, hard facts are difficult, if not impossible, to come by. Even the major retailers contacted for this story provided virtually no information. It seems that they are waiting to see what happens as well. They don’t want to come out for or against anything.
That said, there is information that can help to sort out fact from fantasy, to help put the grip of reality on the spin.
That information, however, provides a very large picture. As such, there are three major parts to the story. The first part looks at how many people are actually coming to south county.
Welcome to SouthShore
There is one thing that virtually everyone agrees on: People are coming here. This fact, however, is one of the first that can be examined with the bright light of reality.
"We’ve planned for an increase of 72,000 people (in south Hillsborough)," said Jim Hosler, director of research and economic development for the Planning Commission. "But that is over the next 23 years."
According to Hosler, south county has been on track with roughly 3,100 people per year moving into the area.
There are approximately 1,250 housing units per year going up. To put that into perspective, the county’s long range plan has 17,500 people moving in throughout Hillsborough County each year. Some projections have the four county Tampa Bay metropolitan area growing by nearly 5,000 people per month.
In comparison to that, 3,100 people per year moving into south county is a manageable figure.
But it’s not a figure that would attract most big box retailers - not yet anyway.
"You’ve got roughly 3,000 houses in Apollo Beach," said Craig Beggins of Century 21 Beggins Enterprises. "MiraBay will bring in up to 1,700 - that’s only 50 percent more than we have now. So there you have 4,700 rooftops - that’s not big enough to support much."
"If you take an area like Brandon and have a 50 percent increase, say 50,000 homes, that would be huge," continued Beggins. "What we have is not that big. In the next few years, the biggest impact may be that there will be another stop light along [U.S.] 41."
But Beggins also knows that the current growth won’t go away anytime soon. "I talk to investors all the time," he said. "They don’t think we are anywhere near the top of the market, they are still expecting rapid appreciation."
In addition to investors, the numbers have also caught the attention of county administrators. A new regional library, slated to be one of the largest in Hillsborough County, is planned for Ruskin in 2006. A new middle school is expected to open in 2004 and a new high school is expected to open in 2005.
"What’s
positive about this growth is that it is going to happen but it isn’t going to
steamroll anyone," said Hosler. "It only seems like we’ll all be rubbing elbows
because everyone has waited so long for something to happen down there."
And while things are most definitely happening it is important to remember that the areas of south county are basically just small towns. And that, of course, is a big part of their appeal.
Ruskin is generally thought to have around 9,000 residents, Apollo Beach, depending on where the lines are drawn, has around 10,000. Even with an increase of 3,100 people per year, it will take several years to gain the attention of most "big box" retailers. The population just isn’t there yet.
"The retail and commercial developers aren’t going to build based on planned development," said Hosler. "They need to see real people living there."
And yet those new people and the 1,250 homes per year have to go somewhere. In the places they do go, nearby residents will likely be in for a change.
"Say I’m a Ruskin resident and I’ve got my home in paradise," continued Hosler. "There’s not many people living around me but the guy next door has 50 acres that he just sold to a guy that is going to put in four homes per acre. What used to be an orange grove is now going to be homes. If you must maintain your rural lifestyle, you have to know who your neighbors are."
Speaking of knowing your neighbors, if all goes to plan there will be roughly 3,130 new ones to meet in south county this year.
Billboards along U.S. 41 are advertising new homes ranging to $2 million. That, coupled with stories in area newspapers, including this one, could give many the idea that south county will soon be overwhelmed with really rich people. The truth of the matter is that rich people are already here.
Next week, The Changing Face of South Hillsborough will continue with Meet the (New) Neighbors. We’ll take a look at who is moving into the neighborhood.
Coming Up Next Week:
One of the famous lines from the movie Field of Dreams was, "If you build it, they will come." At MiraBay, they’ll come even before they build it.
We’ll join a group of future south county residents as they line up early to buy a piece of south county paradise. For one buyer, lining up early meant spending the night in the parking lot of the MiraBay Welcome Center.
Who is buying all of the high priced homes and what about the people on the other end of the economic spectrum?
Meet your new neighbors next week in the Observer News.
Also Coming Up:
The rumors are flying about several big box retailers moving into south county. The facts, however, are few. Yet one in every ten new jobs created in the entire nation came from the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan area. South county communities are joining forces to become a strong player in that prospering market. How will all of the changes effect our communities and area businesses and what can south county shoppers expect from the future?